FOXBORO — What comes after a sugar high?
A cold, hard crash.
The Patriots know.
Last week, they crashed against the Jets, just 11 days after their sweet season-opening upset of Cincinnati. That win not only lifted a locker room, but provided apparent proof of concept for Jerod Mayo’s new coaching staff. And Mayo ran with it the following morning, declaring the media had overblown the Patriots’ offensive line woes and their defense would always stand tall against the run.
How long ago does that feel?
As much as beating the Bengals inflated the hopes and expectations attached to this season, losing to the Jets felt like it took all that air out and more. The Jets didn’t just out-play the Patriots. They out-coached them and out-muscled them at the line of scrimmage. And they beat them with their own bruising, ball-control formula built on 133 rushing yards.
Lucky for the Pats, they’ve had extra time to lick their wounds ahead of Sunday’s trip to San Francisco, and spent their first practice this week doing exactly that.
As the Patriots self-scout, here are the top four problems they face, plus a few solutions:
1. Pass protection
The only choice to start this list.
The Patriots have allowed pressure on a mind-boggling 48.5% of their pass plays this season. For reference, the Lions led the NFL in defense pressure rate last year at 28.2% — almost half of what Patriots opponents have enjoyed through three games.
Issues abound here, starting with a dry talent well, injuries and new coaching. Ultimately, there is only so much first-year offensive line coach Scott Peters can do with this roster, especially since losing his top left tackles for different reasons. Development demands time, especially for rookies like tackle Caedan Wallace and guard Layden Robinson. The Patriots don’t have it.
Enter Alex Van Pelt.
The Patriots’ offensive coordinator can mitigate this pressure in a few ways, but chiefly through his play-calling. More screens, more quick passes, more chips and double-teams for struggling tackles. There are signs Van Pelt is already adjusting.
In the pocket, Jacoby Brissett posted the eighth-fastest average snap-to-throw time of Week 3, per Pro Football Focus; meaning he was unloading the ball faster than all but seven other quarterbacks. In Weeks 1 and 2, Brissett ranked in the bottom five of this metric; an unsurprising number given his scrambles and the downfield focus of Van Pelt’s passing scheme.
Shifty slot receiver DeMario Douglas also saw a team-high nine targets last Thursday, most of which were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and over the middle. Safe, easy, quick throws.
Of note: aside from Douglas, Patriots receivers aren’t springing open often enough, and when they are, Jacoby Brissett is often unable to spot them in time due to incoming pressure. So, this is a connected, multi-layered issue. But coaches are paid to maximize players’ opportunities, and there is plenty of meat left on this play-calling bone.
Start there.
2. QB containment
In recent meetings, Patriots defensive coaches have stressed to players that is their No. 1 problem.
Too often, edge defenders allowed Aaron Rodgers and Geno Smith to escape the last two weeks, both losses. Quibble about where this problem ranks relative to the Patriots’ other troubles, but the numbers back up the defensive staff.
Rodgers and Smith both beat the Pats on the move, combining for a 117.4 passer rating on passes outside the pocket, according to Sports Info. Solutions. In fact, they went a perfect 11-for-11 and picked up three first downs on four total scrambles. Players ascribed those problems to breakdowns with fundamentals and technique.
“As a whole, we have to do a better job keeping the quarterback in the pocket. That was one of the last reminders, even with (Aaron) Rodgers, was ‘let’s keep this guy in the pocket,’” Mayo said. “He had free roam too many times. We’ll get that corrected.”
One place to start: not rushing past the quarterback; a cardinal sin for any Bill Belichick-style defense that is now self-evident to those executing it without him.
3. Sharpening the blitz
The Patriots defense planned to be more aggressive this season.
More multiple.
More dangerous.
On that front, they haven’t delivered.
After turning Joe Burrow into a checkdown artist in the season opener, the Pats got burned by their own blitz the last two weeks. Rodgers went 7-of-9 for 84 yards and two touchdowns versus extra pressure last week, while the Jets posted a 77% success rate. Smith finished 10-of-12 for 171 yards, a touchdown, one sack and a scramble, as the Seahawks averaged 13.2 yards per play against the blitz.
The Patriots’ issue isn’t too much blitzing. Relative to the rest of the league, the Pats are blitzing at a perfectly average rate. It’s timing and predictability.
Too often, Rodgers and Smith recognized pressure and countered accordingly; making checks, changing protections and/or getting the ball out quickly. Their offensive coordinators have been well-prepared with counters, too. In Week 2, Seattle scored a long touchdown and converted its final first downs in overtime with blitz-beaters.
“That’s what (the Patriots) want to do in those critical situations,” Smith said after the Seahawks’ win. “(Seattle offensive coordinator Ryan) Grubb was on it, made the right call.”
Against the Jets, the Patriots turned up the heat in high-leverage moments: third downs, red-zone snaps and whenever Rodgers marched to the edge of field goal range. Rodgers beat it, time and again, and sent them home with their worst loss of the season.
For a defense without a potent four-man rush, blitz efficacy is crucial. Right now, it’s
4. More explosive plays
A not-so fun fact: Brissett hasn’t completed a deep pass all season.
Another not-so fun fact: Antonio Gibson’s 45-yard rush against Seattle is the Patriots’ longest play from scrimmage by 10 yards.
The Patriots need more plays like this. Explosive gains are the second-most strongly correlated statistic with winning after turnovers. The Pats are taking care of the ball better than most teams, but they rank among the least explosive outfits in the NFL.
A simple solution might be to turn to more play-action passing, a common cheat code for offenses. Except Brissett has posted a passer rating of 87 on play-action, going 10-of-16 for 126 yards and a couple sacks. The Pats also struggle to pass-protect for that long, especially on shot plays.
How about more intermediate throws?
There, Brissett might thrive. He’s 5-of-9 for 69 yards and a touchdown on passes that travel between 10 and 19 yards through the air, per Pro Football Focus. Scheme plays for Douglas and Ja’Lynn Polk in that space, and let them do the rest.
